Global warming polls’ hidden meanings
I recently advised a long-standing client who works for an environmental foundation to pay very little attention to the national polls on the environment, because they serve as a distraction from the foundation’s work. I could tell from the response that my client was thinking, “Odd advice from a pollster.”
The most recent polls on global warming are an example of surveys with hidden meanings.
Last month a new poll by the Pew Research Center sent shock waves across the environmental community when it reported that the percentage of Americans who believe there is solid evidence that global warming exists declined since last year, from 71% in April 2008 to 57% in October 2009. This week, ABC News released a poll corroborating the Pew findings. ABC reported that the number of Americans who believe global warming is occurring has declined from 80% in July of 2008 to 72% in November of this year.
But the story does not end there. Both polls asked questions about whether global warming was a serious problem, and both reported that more people thought global warming was a serious problem than said there was evidence that it existed.
Say what?
Pew reported that 57% think it exists and 68% think it is a serious problem. ABC reports that 72% say it is occurring and 82% say it is a serious problem.
The answer to the conundrum lies in question wording. Pew asks: “From what you have heard and read, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades?” Therefore, you could believe that the “evidence” might not be solid, but still think this is a serious problem we need to address.
The ABC question asks: “You may have heard about the idea that the world’s temperature may have been going up slowly over the past 100 years. What is your personal opinion on this – do you think this is probably happening or do you think this is probably not happening?” You might think that the world’s temperature has only been going up for the past 50 years and still be concerned about it.
In our work at BRS, we know from focus groups that people do not think about global warming in terms of its causes – CO2 emissions – as much as its impact. Most people can only talk about global warming in terms of what impacts it may have. A question on awareness, therefore, needs references to the stated impacts of global warming in order to provide a context that people can understand. You might ask: Do you agree or disagree with those who say that the earth is experiencing global warming, which they say is causing the melting of the polar icecaps and more severe weather?
Providing context is just as important in reporting poll results as in question wording. Gary Langer of the ABC poll made a good attempt at providing context when he reported in the first paragraph of his release of the poll that “the drop … (is) almost exclusively among conservatives and Republicans.” Since Republicans make up just 25% of Americans in the ABC poll, this gives you a better idea of how widespread – or not – the drop in awareness has become. It is one thing if Americans across the board are becoming skeptical on global warming. It is quite another if the drop is limited primarily to a group of people representing a quarter of the country, half of whom (52%) also believe that the liberal activist group Acorn stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama.
Deeper into the ABC poll, we learn that a majority – 55% – still want the United States to take action on global warming even if other major industrial countries such as China and India do less. A similar number – 59% – in the Pew poll favor “setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if it may mean higher energy prices.”
The bottom line is that more people may have doubts about solid evidence or 100-year time expanses on global warming; but majorities believe it is a problem that we should address now. As I said, do not get distracted.
11/30/09 CORRECTION:
The above post described both the Pew poll and the ABC News poll as finding that more Americans thought global warming was a “serious problem” than thought it was happening. This was an accurate report of the Pew poll’s findings, but an inaccurate description of the ABC poll. In the ABC News poll, only those who said they felt that global warming was happening were asked if they believed it was a serious problem. The actual numbers for the ABC News poll, released on November 15, reported 72% of the public believes global warming is happening, and 82% of those people believe it is a serious problem. Apologies and many thanks to Gary Langer, director of the ABC News poll, for pointing out my error.